Friday, June 24, 2016

Musings: By Definition, Flawed

Kauai Councilman Gary Hooser would have gotten a much better response to his survey if he'd asked the one question that so many voters want to hear:

Would you like me to go away and STFU?

Curious, his sudden interest in what voters want, now that he's facing defeat. Most politicians seek such guidance at the beginning of their term, so they can avoid debacles like introducing a fireplace ban.

As Hooser careens toward the likely loss of his Council seat, he's taken to mad pandering:
Except Coco Palms, two Coconut Coast resorts and the Hanamaululu project are already approved. So what's he gonna stop? The construction of single family homes? That should go over swell with the building trades that employ so many on Kauai.

Then there was this:
What's sad is that Hooser's “understanding” of the leash law was wrong, and he knew it, hence the wink-wink. 

But then, dats Da Hoos. He attacks people who actually are following the law, like seed farmers, while he picks and chooses which ones he wants to obey.
And really, Gary? The Kauai shelter has 100 dogs desperate for adoption, and you buy one from a breeder — that clipped its ears, no less? So much for leading by good example.

Still, realizing he could possibly snag a vote or two from even this manini issue, he posts (and acknowledges he knew he was breaking the law):
"The rest of us?" Uh, it's not like Hooser has any special privileges here. But yes, let's waste more Council time on the going-nowhere small stuff while ignoring the really big problems. 

Ever get the feeling he thrives on conflict and drama?

Well, if he gets re-elected, there's more of it coming:
Returning to Hooser's hypocrisy, and his “do as I say, not as I do” mentality, remember how he got all huhu over what he perceived — mistakenly — as a seed industry voting bloc?

But when the Hawaii Center for Food Safety Action Fund endorsed the “true food” bloc — four of them graduates of Hooser's HAPA Kuleana Academy and two of them HAPA board members — well, whattya know, there's Hooser, hustling for it:
Take a gander at the questions driving these endorsements if you still think Hooser and his cronies aren't a one-trick anti-GMO/anti-pesticide pony.

And WTF do any of these people know about food, "true" or otherwise, save for how to eat it and malign those who produce it by other than organic means? 

Meanwhile, Hooser makes like blocs were non-existent in Hawaii political history prior to 2014, when the dastardly seed companies introduced the practice specifically to get him:
I guess he plum forgot his own exhortations on the topic in 2014:
In related news, Dr. Lee Evslin took to the opinion pages of The Garden Island to try and convince folks that his recommendations in the Joint Fact-Finding on pesticides are legit:

In our study of the international scientific literature, we found that pesticides are associated with at least 20 medical conditions (pages 59-60 of the report). We then attempted to determine how many of those 20 conditions had available medical data that we could be used to compare the Westside with the rest of the island and state.

I wonder, didn't Dr. Evslin read the public comments submitted on the draft JFF report? Like the one from Dr. F. DeWolfe Miller, Professor of Epidemiology at the John A. Burns School of Medicine:

These recommendations were clearly made without professional epidemiological consultation and are typical of many other communities in the US and elsewhere in the world who have tried to link various health outcomes to some geographic marker as a proxy for some kind of potential environmental hazard. There is an abundance of literature on this subject.  An example of a local study is by Kirkham.

Linking health outcomes (cancer/BD) to zip codes is not recommended for two reasons. One is statistical. There will not be enough events per zip code to reach “statistical significance”, especially in Kauai.  In spite of this, there seems to be an irrational obsession with using zip codes for various useless data mining endeavors.

Even if statistical significance could be achieved, zip codes are not exposures. They are zip codes. Exposure to environmental hazards — in this case pesticides — has to be demonstrated and linked directly and quantitatively to an individual or individuals.

Linking cancer, birth defects or other health outcomes geographically is called by epidemiologists  “ecologic study designs”. Inferring the results from ecologic studies, i.e. from groups (zip codes for example) to individuals is termed an “ecological fallacy” and is by definition, flawed.

So give it up, already.

31 comments:

Anonymous said...

Moratorium on housing other than affordable. Are you crazy? That means the assessment base on vacant land tanks since they cannot build what the property owners want (even for themselves) and assessments on improved properties skyrocket. Taxpayers with improved properties will demand Hooser-Bynum type of tax relief to offset increased values, which leads to decreased revenues to the County or hitting the Hotel & Resort and Vacation Rental classes once again. Visitors account for 25% of the island's population, but between the property taxes collected from these two tax categories and the TAT revenues garner from the state on their behalf, these guests are already contributing a little over 50% of the general fund revenues in the current operating budget.

Anonymous said...

@8:34 Hooser said moratorium on new development. He did not say moratorium on housing. If you read his further comment he said his intent was to focus on development that involved new land use changes. But go ahead twist and spin it as you like.

Joan Conrow said...

@9:49 Oh, I'm sorry, I was just going by his own words -- a moratorium on new development (with the exception of 100% affordable housing).

And there currently is no development in the hopper that requires land use changes, so why would he focus on that?

Anonymous said...

The Big 5 still own most of the land, and if anyone bears the brunt of the blame for the housing crisis it is them.

Anyway, the Kauai house price bubble may pop as the financial elite have to cover their losses from Brexit.

Anonymous said...

Brun gets my vote again.

Anonymous said...

Joan, because there is a mixed use development in the works. The property around Kapaa Middle School. Which, by coincidence, is very close to where Hoosier lives. This project which involves major improvements to the back access roads, is slated for affordable multi unit condominiums, single family homes, affordable stand alone homes, a few ag lots, wide Oahu style residential boulevards with sidewalks and green belts.

Luke Evslin said...

Disclaimer:
Lee Evslin is my dad. I don’t speak for him, nor do I have a background in medicine or epidemiology.

While I could be wrong, I don't think that his and Dr Miller's statements are in opposition:

"We did find increased adverse health conditions on the Westside and some of these conditions have been associated with pesticide use in the evolving medical literature. The problem we faced was insufficient data from environmental testing and available health statistics to separate pesticide usage from socio-economic patterns, genetics, or even random chance as possible causes of adverse health conditions...

The conclusion of the health chapter is that testing of both our environment and its inhabitants is the only scientific way to reduce public uncertainties and prove or disprove a link between Kauai’s use of pesticides and adverse health effects."


From Dr Miller’s public comment:

"Exposure to environmental hazards — in this case pesticides — has to be demonstrated and linked directly and quantitatively to an individual or individuals."

From my reading, it seems as if they are both saying that the available data (which is what the JFFG was tasked at looking at) is insufficient. So if we want to know if pesticides are causing ill health, then further testing is necessary.

Anonymous said...

"..if he'd asked the one question that so many voters want to hear: Would you like me to go away and STFU?"

Ha, ha! I definitely would have responded to his hokey survey, but alas... I just tossed it in the trash along with the other 95.5% who saw the survey for the garbage that it is. I'll be sure the let Mr. Hooser know what I think by NOT voting for him and hope the 95.5% non return rate of the survey reflects the same. Aloha Oe Gary...

Anonymous said...

Luke Evslin, hope that your dad no longer practices medicine. Apparently, he does not see things like how a normal scientific person does. He is parroting what CFS panelist, Stephanie Seneff, stated last year regarding glyphosate. Attended her talk and found her to be a blatant liar who used numbers to prove a causation between the pesticide, using correlation coefficients. The phrase, "figures never lie, liars figure", was most apropos in describing her. The JFFG had a statement, "correlation does not mean causation". Your dad did not fathom what it meant. Obesity is a behavioral problem - First law of Thermodynamics which states, "matter cannot be created or destroyed". In other words, input = output + accumulation. If one eats more than he/she expends, accumulation happens. That is called obesity. On autism, the speaker stated that one (1) of two (2)children born by 2025, 2030, or 2035 (choose whatever year you may) will have that disease. If your dad believes that bullshit, I pity his patients. Your dad is no better than Hooser who uses fear-mongering tactics.

Dinkydao

Anonymous said...

9:55 AM
There are many reasons for the housing crisis. But Big Land is not one of them. The #1 reason housing is so expensive is the obstructions put in place by Government, State and especially County.
JoAnn Yukimura is the single most responsible person for the expense of Building. Over the years she has filled the County with anti-Build types, proposed most all anti-Build laws, done back door conversations with Water Department (telling them to minimize their "opinion" on water capacity), Bike Paths, Park Fees, Curbs/Sidewalks, Low-income housing extortion fees etc. Ask any one who has been here a while.

Of Course over the years such luminaries as Da Hoos, Crybaby Bynum and now it looks like Mason are also in the no-build gaggle.
And WHY would Big Land even discuss anything with this County when just a few years ago this County tried to put them out of the Ag business with the Hooser, Yukimura, Furfaro, Bynum and Chock's actions on 2491? Big Land has sensitivities too ya know.
We got rid of Crybaby Bynum, BlabberMouth Jay, now let's get rid of Da Hoos, Mason and JoAnn.
Granted neither the Mayor nor the Council have put forth any Vision for the island and are full blown spendthrifts, but at least they are not damaging the island like 2491.
And GARY...you and your Fistees have divided the island with the "locals be stupid" intent and purpose of your Fistee Followers. Now watch, not one of your NS friends will ever get anything they proposed listened to, whether Good, Bad or Ugly. Da Hoos you have made it so Da Haoles got no voice in public proceedings.
But Gadzooks Batman, that picture of Da Hoos in the GI is a good one. It must be nice to have your own personal advertising pipe organ.
The GI should be compelled to offer each candidate as much face time as Da hoos receives.

Anonymous said...

If the survey did not include the requirement of attaching a stamp, ie a donation to Gary, I would have responded and told him exactly what I felt, STFU.....

Anonymous said...

Well, Gary doesn't mention how many people listed GMO/pesticides as one of their top concerns. The fact that he doesn't mention their ranking at all in this article tells me it wasn't much. So much for transparency I guess. And yet he still bangs the seed company drum.

Anonymous said...

Its enough to make you shoot yourself in the Walmart parking lot.

Anonymous said...

@June 24, 2016 at 2:09 PM

Typical industry troll move. Luke makes an innocuous comment, that shows the common ground in the reports - more testing is needed re: pesticides. You respond by insulting his father and assuredly making Luke's participation by comment a unpleasant, personal experience. Its part of how you guys shut up the moderates. The antis do the same thing. America has, sadly, lost civility. We need to start teaching civics in the schools again.

Harold Keyser said...

Again with the citizen science editorial trying to justify the JFF recommendations. Epidemiology is fiendishly complicated, is based on statistics and best left to actual experts. Even in locations with large populations like Florida, the epidemiologist's joke is one could study the data and conclude that it is a really weird place where almost everyone is born Hispanic and dies Jewish. Both are true, they occur together and there is no cause and effect. We cannot possible discover and learn everything for ourselves, we do have to trust experts.

Anonymous said...

Uh @3:11pm did you actually look at the survey? Stupid. He did not ask about GMO's but only one question about pesticides.

Anonymous said...


If a person really wants a certain breed of canine(ears cropped) that's your call.

As a two faced pollitition you would think you would adopt one of the way too many available at the Humane Society ? Another question--- As I think anyone would do.

Was this dog with a big name Neutered? I suspect not. And that's cool too Gary! Except putting this on your own facebook with a wink wink law breaking wink. Gets met with disgust asshole.

Thanks Joan, this idiot than can introduce a fireplace law(on a tropical island) has no business being above the law. So yessir Hoose we are going to blast you for that also.

Anonymous said...


5:05-- what in the name of anything did you mean by that? That's your way of 1st amendment because you don't like the way this blog is not fitting with Hoose love? And that's what you got?
Maybe I missed something that you need to tell us about five oh five? Might be interesting.

Anonymous said...

Whoa respect for Doctor Evslin please he's done a lot for our community and raised a great family here on Kauai

Families on the west side concerned about long term health consequences from exposure to poisons spread by the seed companies could really care less about GMOs. They rightfully just want be assured that its safe to raise their keiki there
Likely the millions of dollars that are flowing into the west side communities from the seed companies influence people's perceptions of what iacceptable exposure is.

Studies are good but unfortunately results come years or decades down the road.

Kauai has an advantageous climate for the seed companies but with communities so close, winds blowing year round and rains flowing down slope, avoiding pesticide chemical exposure is unlikely.



Anonymous said...


5:11- you are really going to call Dinkydao a "industry troll" move?

Every EVERYONE of your paranoiacs have been addressed so many times that your last clingong for the hope of something terrible probably is turning your children into that syndrome that effects people in otherwise perfect health.

YOU are a KOOK of the highest order 5:11, and you won't be satisfied untill you got the (syndrome) don't make me say it... I want YOU to fill in the blanks..

Thanks Dinkydao and keep on rockin buddy.

Anonymous said...

Are only west side people affected by pesticides? Or are the pesticides that are sprayed weekly on the golf courses in princeville blessed with magic rich people powers that block the affects of pesticides sprayed in their hood?

Anonymous said...

Joan- You have known Gary for years. He used to be a nice guy. He used to put his ear to the ground and listen to everyone. But, something happened a while back. Both Gary and Bynum had metamorphic transformations and became whacky social crusaders. Gary has always been a Mini-JoAnn and hid behind her capris. Then he surpassed her as an obstructionist and as the Council know-it-all.
Perhaps it was Father Time that changed him. You know, that startling moment when you look in the mirror and realize "Holy F*ck, I'm Old". But whatever the transition, he became a real glory hound, taking on anything that would put him in the spotlight. Unfortunately when he got focused on GMOS and Herbicides, he forgot that these are 2 separate things and that he now was in the hands of outside activists. He could have been more effective if he focused just on Herbicides...but he wanted the whole CFS enchilada - go for GMOS.
He only spoke to the looney-tooneys on the westside. Civil discourse ended with Gary's Fanatic Fistees and his oblique insertion of Mason in that mad midnight moment at the Council.
His Fistees, a mob that was always close to violence. Never once did Gary ask his minions to stop the graffiti,listen to others or any other collaborative efforts.
He is all about grandstanding.
This happens to some who spend too much time feeling they are all powerful, they forget that we are all men and women who put our skirts on one leg at a time.
Gary gotta go.

Anonymous said...

Saw Hooser this morning driving on Kuhio going 50 mph! Tried calling KPD to report but kept getting the run around. Think he has an in with the cops too?

Anonymous said...

It's obvious, the rules don't apply to the Hoos.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 6:08 AM said...

"Are only west side people affected by pesticides? Or are the pesticides that are sprayed weekly on the golf courses in princeville blessed with magic rich people powers that block the affects of pesticides sprayed in their hood?"


So are we justifying the poisoning of the west side families because other communities around Kauai may be getting poisoned from golf courses?

Anonymous said...

5:11, Luke appears to be apologetic about his dad's comments. Suggest you read his dad's guest opinion in TGI regarding the JFFG report. Despite saying that there are insufficient data, he posted a graph showing developmental disorder for three districts over a span of one (1) year. A subjective reader would conclude that it would be due to pesticides and not even consider other factors like socio-economic status, education levels of parents, etc. Do you know the difference between subjective and objective reasoning? If not, suggest you google both types. The antis have taken a position and their new demand is "insufficient information, more testing require". Another task for you is to do research on MSDS for table salt (NaCl), sucrose (sugar), sodium hypochlorite. These are common chemicals found in one's household. See what LD50 (lethal dose at 50%) are for these chemicals.

Finally, I am not a troll for the industry. It is a commonly used word to discredit someone when logic fails.

Dinkydao

Anonymous said...

7:17 What kind of fucktard are you?

I don't even support Hooser but damn son...

Anonymous said...

Dr. Evslin is a good doctor.

Joan Conrow said...

Hi Luke, Thanks for your comment. I had meant to include this link to Dr. Miller's full critique.

I disagree with your conclusion that his statement is not in opposition to your father's: From my reading, it seems as if they are both saying that the available data (which is what the JFFG was tasked at looking at) is insufficient. So if we want to know if pesticides are causing ill health, then further testing is necessary.

In fact, Dr. Miller specifically states: "The Hawaii State Department of Health should not be bound by this recommendation."

Anonymous said...

I'd like to pose this question, through the reality of what's going on on this island and every where else in the state.

The JFFG has made some assumption about pesticide affecting our young. How about adding this comment.
The current ice / meth crisis adds to the birth defects / learning disorder on the smaller population on the westside that the JFFG DID NOT take into conideration.
Let me ask you all again. How much people died from pesitcide exposure?
How much people died from ice / meth use? And how much are disfunctional?
I know someone who took some kids in their house because the kids were born meth / ice addicts. A known person to kauai.

Here's the question to the general public (can't ask.it to the JFFG):
What defects / learning disorder is attribute to the drug epidemic?
What defects / learning disorder is attributed to pesticide use?

The average person WILL pick drugs. and if you don't then you really don't know this world they / we live in.

All of you are turning a blind eye to our drug epidemic.

The walmart comment COULD have been made on what happened on monday (06/20/2016. That was an incentive statement made towards the family.
(Assumption) it is a reality of what kauai's comcern / priority should be, ice meth.

I've been asking this question a bunch of times on this blog. None of you freaking pro 2491 faka's got kahone's to answer this freaking simple question.

Let me make this bold scare tactical comment to you all (via fear mongers tactics). Drugs is coming into your neighborhood really soon to affect your lives. Be afraid, be really afraid!

What's my point. Drugs not pesticides affecting / KILLING the westside community. I.e. Kids being born to ice / meth parents.

Lets move on to living our lives in paradise.

Good luck all!

Anonymous said...

Ok Gary here's whey there's a leash law....because everyone thinks their dog is well behaved when they aren't. People's leashed dogs get attacked by dogs that aren't leashed. You never know for sure if someone is hiking the same trail as you or if someone is going to show up at the same beach as you. Play with your dog off leash but just accept that it's your risk and you will be help responsible if something happens.
And Gary how about you talk about your plans to breed your dog? Seriously bring more Pit Bulls to island where they are the number one euthanized dog at our Humane Society. An island that puts down hundreds of dogs each year and many more cats.
Hooser is a "I do what I want person and the laws and welfare of the island be damned."