Monday, January 4, 2010

Musings: Back to Reality

It’s Monday, the official end of a long weekend that followed a previous long weekend, and for some state workers, the culmination of a two-week furlough. The sun has disappeared behind the clouds, which are releasing a smattering of rain.

I wish I had something to perk you up. Instead, I just have this report from The Washington Post. If you’re feeling like you’ve been frettin’ and sweatin’, but not getting anywhere (to borrow lyrics from The Clash), you’re right:

The past decade was the worst for the U.S. economy in modern times, a sharp reversal from a long period of prosperity that is leading economists and policymakers to fundamentally rethink the underpinnings of the nation's growth.

Middle-income households made less in 2008, when adjusted for inflation, than they did in 1999 -- and the number is sure to have declined further during a difficult 2009. The Aughts were the first decade of falling median incomes since figures were first compiled in the 1960s.

And the net worth of American households -- the value of their houses, retirement funds and other assets minus debts -- has also declined when adjusted for inflation, compared with sharp gains in every previous decade since data were initially collected in the 1950s.


But don’t worry. We’ve turned the corner, doncha know? Heck, everything is going to be OK:

The financial crisis is, for all practical purposes, over, and forecasters are now generally expecting the job market to turn around early in 2010 and begin creating jobs. The task ahead for the next generation of economists is to figure out how, in a decade that began with such economic promise, things went so wrong.

Ya think?

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Ya think?"

I do not think so. Obama put the same people that were responsible for the current situation in place to solve it. With the fox guarding the hen house, if I were a chicken I would be very afraid.

Anonymous said...

Please stay away from the economic subject. You are in way over your head.

If people have lived within there means over the last 10 years they are not only ahead but have kept their jobs and are doing ok.

Dawson said...

Please stay away from the economic subject. You are in way over your head.

If people have lived within there means over the last 10 years they are not only ahead but have kept their jobs and are doing ok.


I'm sure a self-proclaimed economics expert such as yourself won't mind citing the sources that support your claim.

Anonymous said...

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/consumerConfidence.cfm

cpi shows pretty good news, but nothing super. pretty mixed too, save for ~ "the sky is falling" people of 2009 looking silly

it is an interesting question tho: had consumers an ave 10-30% savings rate in '00-09 and not taken out such nutty loans, would those collapses have occurred to even somewhat the same degree? does not seem so

in the medical field, the key term is "informed consent" (as opposed to caveat emptor, which is what lax rules lead to, and apparently the MO of a good many lenders)

1000% free markets are like communism -- looks good on paper, but hard to make work as people are imperfect


ps - HI, to its credit, has a pretty good personal savings rate, relative to other states


dwps

Anonymous said...

Just my own dumb luck I guess.
Living within your means is self explanatory. As is keep it simple stupid, me not you of course.
And that time honored mantra,save for a rainy day. Or in the most recent case, saving in order to take advantage of the largest sale Wall Street has held in a generation.
And lastly do your own financial homework and don't pay attention to your doom and gloom friends and or columnist.

Kolea said...

One of your anonymous posters wrote:

"If people have lived within there means over the last 10 years they are not only ahead but have kept their jobs and are doing ok."

That statement is moralistic nonsense which bears little resemblance to the real world. A lot of people who are now in trouble have lost their jobs through no fault of their own. Home values have collapsed around us, even if WE did not "buy beyond our means." When a neighbor's home is foreclosed on, the value of comparable homes also decline. When this happens to enough people and when people are losing their jobs, the real estate market tanks.

As people lose their jobs, they stop purchasing goods and services from their neighbors. Small shops close, restaurants and bars cut hours for employees, who in turn buy less.

Your moralistic "explanation" for the collapsing economy puts the blame on the individuals, while ignoring the structural forces which are beyond their control.

@Anonymous,

You should stay away from the economic subject. You are in WAY over your head.

Anonymous said...

ya but the savings rate for the ave american has been pitiful for years. i guess one can argue that savings rates went down around the same time the credit card companies got permission to jack up the interest rates. still, personal responsibility should play into it somewhere


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